五张图看懂中国银行间债券市场

The Shanghai-Hong Kong bond connect programme, launched on Monday, offers a streamlined channel for international investors to access mainland China’s Rmb69tn ($10tn) interbank bond market, the world’s third-largest behind the US and Japan.

中国内地与香港的“债券通”今日启动，为国际投资者提供了一个参与中国内地69万亿元人民币（合10万亿美元）银行间债券市场的简便渠道。中国银行间债券市场规模仅次于美国和日本，位列世界第三。

Here is a brief overview of the Chinese bond market in charts.

以下是中国债券市场概览。

Borrowers

发行者

Government-linked entities dominate bond issuance. In addition to central government bonds, investors also treat policy bank bonds the same as sovereign bonds in terms of credit risk. China also launched a municipal bond market in 2014.

政府关联实体是发行债券的主力。除了国债之外，投资者认为政策性银行发行的债券在信用风险方面与主权债券相同。中国还在2014年允许地方政府举债。

Policy banks — the largest is China Development Bank — are non-commercial, 100 per cent state-owned banks that lend in support of government priorities.

政策性银行——其中最大的是中国国家开发银行(CDB)——是百分之百国有的非商业性银行，为政府的优先项目提供贷款支持。

The corporate bond market includes debt from commercially oriented state-owned enterprises as well as local-government financing vehicles, which are special-purpose vehicles that provinces and cities use to finance infrastructure.

公司、企业债券市场包括商业化国有企业和地方政府融资平台的债务，后者是省市地方政府为给基础设施筹集资金而成立的特殊目的实体。

Ownership

持有者

The term “interbank market” is a misnomer because the market includes a wide range of financial institutions. Still, commercial banks dominate the market in terms of ownership.

“银行间市场”这个叫法其实并不恰当，因为这个市场包括一系列范围广泛的金融机构。不过，在债券持有方面，商业银行占主导地位。

In addition to their on-balance-sheet holdings, they control even more bonds through the off-balance-sheet wealth management products that they sell to customers as a higher-yielding alternative to traditional savings deposits.

除了在表内持有债券外，商业银行还通过表外理财产品控制了更多的债券。商业银行将理财产品作为一种回报高于传统储蓄的替代性产品销售给客户。

Liquidity

流动性

Overall liquidity in China’s government and corporate bond market is comparable to that of other debt markets in developing Asia. But within these broad categories, ease of buying and selling varies heavily by bond type. Many bonds barely change hands, with banks and other investors holding them to maturity.

中国的国债市场和公司、企业债券市场的整体流动性与亚洲其他发展中国家的债券市场相当。但在这些笼统的类别中，买卖的便利性会随债券类型不同而大相径庭。许多债券几乎从不换手，银行和其他投资者会一直持有至到期。

Among sovereign bonds, policy bank bonds are often more liquid than treasuries. Among corporate bonds, medium-term notes approved by the People’s Bank of China are more liquid than so-called enterprise bonds overseen by the National Development and Reform Commission, the state planning agency.

在主权债券中，政策性银行发行的债券通常比国债流动性更强。在公司、企业债券中，由中国央行批准发行的中期票据，比由主管规划的国家发改委监管的所谓企业债流动性更强。

Maturity

债券期限

The market is tilted towards short maturities, with a quarter currently due to mature in less than one year and 70 per cent in under five years.

市场偏向短期债券，当前市场四分之一的债券将在一年内到期，70%在五年内到期。

Bond market turmoil this year has exacerbated this trend. New issuance has fallen sharply as the central bank has squeezed liquidity and the banking regulator has issued new regulations to discourage leveraged investment in the bond market.

今年债券市场的动荡扩大了这种趋势。随着中国央行收紧流动性以及银行业监管机构发布新规打击债券市场的杠杆化投资，债券发行数量急剧下降。

Yield curve and credit spreads

收益率曲线和信贷息差

Even in normal times, China’s yield curve is often flatter than that of other markets. Market turmoil in 2017 has amplified this tendency.

即便在正常时期，中国的收益率曲线也往往比其他市场要平。2017年的市场动荡放大了这种趋势。

The yield curve is currently inverted as tight liquidity has hit demand for medium tenors of around five years. The short supply of longer tenors, by contrast, means that demand has remained strong.

目前收益率曲线逆转，因为流动性紧张影响了五年左右中期债券的需求。相比之下，更长期债券的供应匮乏意味着，需求依然强劲。

China’s market is notorious for failing to price risk effectively. Many investors assume the government will bail out borrowers in danger of default, leading to moral hazard. But defaults have risen in recent years, weakening the assumption of an implicit government guarantee for all debt.

中国市场是出了名的无法有效为风险定价。许多投资者假设，中国政府会在出现债券违约风险时出手纾困借款人，从而引发道德风险。但最近几年债券违约事件日益增多，削弱了政府为所有债务提供隐性担保的假设。

Foreign investors regard local credit-rating agencies with suspicion because they virtually never give ratings below AA minus. The agencies reply that riskier companies know they cannot access the market and therefore don’t seek ratings at all.

外国投资者对中国国内信用评级机构抱有疑虑，因为它们给出的评级几乎从未低于AA-。这些评级机构回应称，风险较高的公司知道它们无法进入市场，因此根本不寻求评级。